5 | Buy baby, buy

Incredible 12-month change in corn’s net position as funds have added the equivalent of a cumulative 3.3 billion bushels of length since March:

4 | Driving the bus

A stocks squeeze among major corn exporters has been the catalyst for funds' about-face in the corn market. 

USDA is currently estimating (a/o Jan) Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine, combined, are set to see a near-60% reduction in physical ending stocks year-on-year:

3 | On the other hand

Unlike corn, the world is not running out of soybeans. In fact, world carryout is estimated at a record in 2024/25, led by record stocks on hand in China amid a(nother) record Brazilian crop.

2 | Measuring up

Brazil is BIG and its soybean production is even bigger and seemingly growing by the day, driven by continued growth in area. Brazil has averaged a 5% annual increase in soybean area for more than 20 years running, ballooning to a record 47.3 million hectares harvested today (117 million acres).

That expanded area has pushed Brazil to another record crop in 2024/25 - at 169 mmt (6.2 billion bushels) - an incredible 42% larger than 2024 U.S. production of 118.8mmt (4.37 billion bushels).

Even crazier is its largest producing state Mato Grosso is set to out-produce all three U.S. ‘I’ states, combined this year.

Mato Gross's production should be huge though because it is HUGE! At more than 223 million acres, you could fit Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana within its borders and still have 65 million acres to spare.

1 | One big unknown

Trade remains the largest unknown for U.S. agriculture, especially as half of all U.S. ag exports are bound for China, Mexico, and Canada each year.

To further illustrate how impactful tariffs are on ag, here's where our largest trading partners rank by commodity:

Mexico
#1 in corn
#1 in wheat
#1 in pork
#1 in poultry
#1 in dairy
#1 in sugar
#1 in distillers grains
#2 in soybean meal
#2 in prepared foods
#3 in soybeans
#4 in beef

Canada
#1 in ethanol
#1 in biodiesel
#1 in prepared foods
#2 in dairy
#2 in sugar
#3 in poultry
#4 in soybean meal
#4 in pork
#4 in distillers grains
#5 in corn
#5 in beef

China 
#1 in soybeans 
#1 in cotton
#1 in sorghum
#2 in poultry 
#3 in corn 
#3 in pork 
#3 in beef 
#3 in dairy 
#5 in wheat 
#5 in prepared foods

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